There are two leading contenders for the Best Country Solo Performance Grammy this year: Carrie Underwood's "Little Toy Guns" and Chris Stapleton's "Traveller".
Let's look at the facts.
"Little Toy Guns"
Released: February 16, 2015
Sales: Certified Gold (500,000)
Chart Peak: #2 on Country Airplay, #6 on Hot Country Songs
"Traveller"
Released: April 27, 2015
Sales: Hard to say. The Traveller album has sold around 800,000 copies as of this month. (Gold)
Chart Peak: #17 Hot Country Songs, #87 Billboard Hot 100
Though Underwood does have a slight advantage in terms of sales and chart position, Stapleton is nominated for Best Country Song, Album of the Year, Best Country Solo, and Best Country Album. He also picked up Album of the Year at the CMA Awards last year, so academy voters seem to like him.
Underwood is a 7-time Grammy winner (a clear favorite in the country category), while Stapleton has yet to win a Grammy but has 4 CMA Awards and 6 number one songs to his songwriting credit.
Stapleton will almost definitely win Best Country Album, but faces tough competition this year from Little Big Town's "Girl Crush" in Best Country Song.
The race is tight. Stay tuned February 15th, when the winners for the 2016 Grammys are announced.